On Hypersonic Missiles
Hypersonic is classified as something traveling faster than 5 times the speed of sound. 3,800 MPH at sea level, about 2,700 MPH at 30,000 feet. Roughly a mile a second. All the great nations are researching hypersonic weapons to some degree or another, and have been for many decades.
The task is daunting. First, you need an engine capable of generating the thrust. Then the materials capable of withstanding the heat. The thrust of a large rocket engine is more than enough, providing the materials can survive the atmospheric friction. Any of the rockets sent to the International Space Station has to go 5 times that fast. The missiles require exotic materials to survive the heat generated during reentry. But these technologies are decades old, and a secret to no one.
Both Russia and China are making claims of having Hypersonic Weapons. There is no doubt that they do. China has officially deployed a system, the DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). Russia has deployed the Avangard. Both of these systems launch from an ICBM rocket to speeds up to mach 20, where they then glide at hypersonic speeds towards their targets. The Russian weapon is more problematic, as it is a strategic weapon, it's target of choice are cities. It probably can do what it is advertised it can do, since it carries a nuke and only needs a to get within a mile of it's target.
The Chinese weapon, has been labeled a carrier killer. And the propaganda is that it can kinetic kill a US aircraft carrier out to 1,800 miles. They have tested the HGV about 7 or so times, each with the propaganda deluge in western press about it's ability to destroy a carrier, at range. It is clear, that this is an attempt to put the fear of this weapon and cause our navy to keep it's distance, as China expands it's influence into the Pacific, and they do not want the competition.
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| DF-17s on display. Image stolen from the internet without permission |
And the USN's response is usually nothing. No denials of enemies capabilities, no counter arguments as to "Well we have...". The propaganda trolls in the east are facing a wall of nothing in response to their claims. It is almost like the USN doesn't really care.
It could be they don't. The USN certainly understands the problems involved with fielding such a weapon, and the threat it imposes. The USN, like it's Chinese counterparts, also understand The Fire Control problem. I was a Fire Controlman 1976-1982. At that time there were 72 variables required to put a shot on the target. This was just a simple ballistic program. Beyond certain ranges, you cannot know all the variables. For long range shots, you have to rely on Mid Course Guidance. Beyond that, Terminal Homing. Without these, all you are going to do is make a big splash in the water.
As an example. The Nimitz is steaming at 20 knots at a range of 1,000 miles. The HGV's time of flight is 8 minutes. If the HGV hit it's precise targeted position, the Nimitz will have moved on 3 miles. Even if the HGV leads the target by 3 miles, the Nimitz will only need to change it's course by .1 degree to avoid being hit. Frankly, the prevailing current will be enough of a jink to cause a miss.
The HGV will need some way to upgrade it's course along the way, referred to as Mid Course Guidance. This will require something putting their eyes on the target, provide feedback to the control systems, which will update the missiles targeting computer. I requires that something is tracking the target. It could be satellite, which would need to be overhead at just the right time. Or a drone. or a high value target like an AWACS.
One thing the current war between Russia and Ukraine has revealed is that drones are going to receive a much high priority in getting destroyed. Any AWACS is going to have a very limited life span when it breaks the radar ring what would be circling Carrier task force in a hot war situation.
Even if there are "eyes on target", getting a guidance signal to an HGV will be difficult as well It's surface temperature will be exceeding the melting point of steel, see Scientific American. This will have the effect of creating ionizing radiation "noise" across a universal spectrum. Getting a signal to update the HGV course becomes problematic. Especially if it is over the horizon.
Accuracy further degrades as the HGV has to deal with being jostled due to it generating random atmospheric vortexes from it's own heat, as well as from the pressure wave in front of it.
Another question is what is the minimum range of these weapons? At ranges where ground systems can provide the guidance updates may be too close for the missile to climb to altitude, then glide back at the speeds necessary to be effective . All missiles have a minimum effective range. For these weapons, that range is going to be excessive. I truly don't know what the minimum range of the HGV is. I have seen Intermediate Ballistic Missile minimum ranges between 240 and 500 miles.
There are estimates that the surface temperature of these missiles will be heated to at least 2,000K, the electronics for this missile will have to be well insulated. Possibly sealed in a Dewar flask. Which also means it is effectively isolated electronically, like in a Faraday cage. The electronics would be vulnerable any break in the control wiring, be it from melting wires, violent shudders, or stretching hull. All of which could disable the mid course guidance systems.
I think the only way this missile works, is they fire and pray the terminal seeker will pick up a signal in the last 15 seconds of flight. The terminal seeker will have to be shielded for most of the flight, and uncovered just in time. It has to be able to "see" the target through the shock wave of compressed, heated gas in front of it, before extreme temperatures destroy the delicate sensors required. Then they have to hope their aileron surfaces didn't weld together, or their electronics didn't fry. Because at these speeds, this missile cannot maneuver too much, because it could come apart from the forces involved.
I have some experience with near hypersonic missiles. In the late 70's, I was a Fire Controlman for both the Talos and Terrier Surface to Air missile radars. Both of these missiles are capable of speeds in excess of mach 2. In 1980, the USN was retiring the Talos system. And it was decided to spend the Talos missile inventory as targets for other ships and planes.
Talos missiles are powered by ramjets, and could travel at mach 2.5. There were at least 3 such "Buzzard Ex's". In total, about 4 of these missiles were shot down. Two by the Terrier Mod 8 systems on the the USS Jouett, CG-29 and the USS Dale, CG-19. A third was shot down by the Norton Sound, the test ship for the future Aegis system. For a more humorous sides of these operations, see Buzzard Ex and Spontaneous Teleportation.
Admittedly, Talos is only half the speed of what is considered hyper sonic, but this was also over 40 years ago, using equipment designed in the 50's, later updated in the late 70's.
In 2008, using a SM-3, an Aegis equipped ship, the USS Lake Erie, intercepted a satellite with a kinetic kill warhead. The satellite USA-193 was traveling at 4.8 miles per second, about mach 23, when intercepted.The actual target was not the satellite, but a specific spot of the satellite that would fragment the fuel tank. Causing it to fragment as to vaporize the hydrazine in the upper atmosphere.
The US Navy is now deploying 30 kw lasers, capable of shooting down sub sonic missiles. There are higher powered lasers, planned, up to 300kw. The 300 kw probably would be powerful enough to shoot down an HGV. Hypersonic missiles cost many millions to produce. The lasers are a buck or two a shot.
It could be the Chinese weapon system is only effective as a propaganda weapon. designed just in time to be obsolete. Such is rapidly advancing technology.
