A Question of Ratios

While this missive does not belong to the topic of the Cold War, but it doesn't fit in any of my blogs either.

On Dec 8, 2024, President Zelenskyy of Ukraine revealed what is normally considered top secret information, the official casualty count for the war between Ukraine and Russia, along with the estimated casualties of the Russian Federation. One of the articles is copied below as links for news sites tend to be fragile, and I wanted at least one source the reader can read without my bias.  But the bias of the article writer, I can't do anything about :)

As a student of war history, I am of course interested in the goings on in the UvR war.  And this also tantalized my interest in all things numbers.  

Zelenskyy reported that Ukraine had 43,000 killed, and 370,000 wounded.  In addition they estimated that Russia had lost 198,000 dead, 550,000 wounded.

I understand that truth is the first casualty of war.  But there is something about the numbers that pass the smell test with me.  

A couple of decades ago I was researching a computer game that never got published.  To that end I was compiling the statistics of every American division and independent formation in Europe.  One of the things I noticed was a pretty consistent casualty wounded  to  death ratio of 3 to 1.  One notable exception was a regiment of the 4th Infantry Division with about 90% deaths.  Which led me to the disaster of operation Tiger, where a practice landing for D-Day was intercepted by German E boats.  About 900 men died, mostly of hypothermia.

This basically established in my mind a casualty ration for modern warfare.

So in the early 2000's, when the casualties were being reported in Iraq, I was surprised that the casualty wounded to killed ratio was about 9-1. While I pondered that, I noticed photos of our soldiers and their body armor.  A couple of consultations with some active duty soldiers confirmed the efficacy of the armor.  

Now we are up to Ukraine's reported ratio of 8.5-1 wounded to dead.  This passes the smell test.  Ukraine started the war with a fair amount of body armor, and has been sent over 100,000 kits, while producing over 150,000 of their own.  

Russia also has body armor.  But there are also reports of corruption not delivering the goods.  One video shows the armor plates to be just blocks of wood.  Other reports have new armor made in China implying that Russia is not capable of producing the needed armor for their troops, especially in light of the reported casualties.  If the Russian troops are not issued armor, then the reported casualty ration of 3.7 wounded to 1 dead is also believable.

I believe the Zelenskyy numbers are close to the truth.  The lower Ukrainian casualties because Ukraine still exists.  Russia has failed to crush them with overwhelming numbers.  And the Russian casualties because again, Russia has mustered large numbers of troops, and yet only has been able to take very small parcels of land after numerous assaults. 

One article from the Politico, copied without their permission.

KYIV — Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers killed in action and 370,000 more were wounded, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Sunday, in Kyiv's first disclosure of total casualty figures in the the nearly three-year conflict.

Zelenskyy announced the figures in a Telegram post on Sunday after United States President-elect Donald Trump said early Sunday that Ukraine had "ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers" in the war started by Russian President Vladimir Putin almost three years ago.

In February, Zelenskyy said Kyiv had seen 31,000 troops killed in action in the conflict, but refused to give the number of wounded, saying he didn't want to give the Kremlin too much information. Since then, he has routinely described estimates published by various media outlets as overblown.

“Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers who died on the battlefield," plus 370,000 who have been wounded, Zelenskyy said in his post. "And this is taking into account that in our army approximately 50 percent of the wounded return to service, and all injuries are recorded, including minor and repeated ones,” he said.

“And let’s not forget we managed to return 3,767 warriors from Russian captivity,” Zelenskyy added.

The Ukrainian figures compare with 600,000 dead and wounded reported for the Russian side. Zelenskyy insists that Moscow's losses are larger than that.

“Updated data on Russian losses exceed 750,000 of their people. This is 198,000 Russians killed and more than 550,000 wounded,” the Ukrainian president said. Since September Russia has been losing five or six troops for every Ukrainian soldier lost in battle, he added.

Zelenskyy reiterated his push for a "just peace" that includes guarantees for Ukraine against a renewal of Russian aggression in the future.

"A cease-fire without guarantees [means conflict] can be reignited at any moment, as Putin has already done so," Zelenskyy said. "To guarantee that there will be no more Ukrainian casualties, we must guarantee the reliability of peace and not turn a blind eye to the occupation," he added.