The US military is capable of amazing things. It's ability to vector in country destructive force with only a few days notice is unparalleled in the world. But it comes at a price. Last year, that price was $850 billion.
How it is able to force projection is refereed to as the Tooth (guns, planes, ships) to Tail (passing the ammo) ratio. While the teeth are the most deadly ever conceived, without the supplies, training, support forces, forward bases, administration, purchasing, technicians, medical, and intelligence, they are just lumps of medal in the desert. The US Military ratio is 10-1.
Loosely calculated, about $85 billion is dedicated to the planes, ships and guns, and $765 billion in procurement, housing, training and fuel. Western Allies are about 1-2, which they can get away with because they are more regional powers. Russia is about 1-1.1. Barely adequate for defense, and has had disastrous results when tested on the offensive.
None of this is secret. Our opponents in the last 80 years have come to realize that going toe-to-toe with the US military is bad plan. China threw over a million men into Korea, and over 200,000 died. North Vietnam in 1968 sent half a million men into South Vietnam using more standard divisional units and lost 20-1 in the Tet offensive. Iraq had a million man army in 1991 with 6 months to dig in and prepare. They lost 50,000 dead in 4 days of ground combat.
Amateurs talk about the sexy weapons and tactics. Professionals talk about logistics. And on that, the US has no peers. But again, it comes at a price.
So our enemies have learned to fight us in a different way. They already know that they are going to take huge losses, but they are willing to do it because of the economic damage they cause to the US. When you have a tire blown out because you hit a pot hole, you can blame a guerrilla in Afghanistan. Because it cost US $1 million dollars a year per deployed foot soldier there. How many potholes can you fix with a million dollars? The I-35 Bridge collapse in 2007? Could have been avoided if we were not spending $40 billion on homeland security. Our enemies accept casualties knowing that they are eroding away the richest nation on the planet.
And now the Pedophile in the Oval Office has decided, with the full unconditional support of the Republican controlled congress, to go to war with Iran. It was a war reliant on the on that marvelous US military. But it did appear to have none of the forethought and planning associated in those early military actions I mentioned before. China entered the Korean war 6 months in. The US had been deploying troops into Vietnam for years before the North launched the Tet offensive. We had 6 months to build up and PLAN for the Gulf War.
None of that forethought is in evidence with Iran. Sure we pummeled their air and sea assets, while committing a number of atrocities in the process. But other than a few defined targets early on, it seems to be we are bombing targets of opportunity. Meanwhile, Iran was replying with launching thousands of drones into all the countries supporting the US/Israel war of choice. Along with over a thousand ballistic missiles.
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| The Shahed drone 50kg warhead, 2,500km range. |
Economically, this missile exchange has been a big win for Iran. Much print has already been published of $4 million dollar Patriot missiles shooting down $25,000 Shahed drones. Sometimes more than one Patriot. This is 160-1 win for each one intercepted.
The US Navy also has interceptors, SM-2's at 2 million, while the SM-3's and 6's are $10 million and $5 million each. Or the cheaper, but shorter ranged, Sea Sparrow at just $1.7 million.
The US also has numerous point defense systems. The Rolling Air frame Missile, with a range of 9km, and a cost of just under a million. The Phalanx 20mm Gatling gun, with a range of 3km and a cost of around $50 a round, but fires in 75 round bursts. But all this assumes the point defenses are deployed where the targets are.
The real problem with the Shahed drone is that there are no factories to bomb that make these things. They are all made with piece work parts, spread out over a country twice the size of Alaska. That and over the course of the Ukraine Russia war, both it production costs and capabilities have been refined considerably.
The war in Ukraine has reshaped modern warfare forever. And military's around the world have taken note. And are adapting as best as they can. But that process can be slow for countries like the US and Russia, as hysteresis of the R&D and procurement systems are set in stone. The US budgets are dedicated to producing hundreds of very expensive missiles a year. And the Russian politburo politics are slow to adapt to realities in the field.
So Iran was gleefully willing to launch hundreds of drones a night, not really caring if they hit things or not, knowing they were winning the exchange rate. Stories of depleted stocks abounded the news cycle, and projections that it would take a decade to restock interceptors. And US ships having to pull out to ports an ocean away to reload.
And while the US and it's allies were stuck in this death spiral of expense ratios. Other countries were adapting and evolving.
One of them is Ukraine. Ukraine has been subjected to nearly continuous bombardment by Russian ballistic missiles and drones now for over 4 years. The threats range from hypersonic Iskandar missiles to the above mentioned Shahed drones. And while Russian equipment has only had some incremental advances over the last 4 years, the Ukrainian responses to the threats have been iterating almost weekly.
Starting from next to nothing in resources, the Ukrainian drone industry has grown to over 200,000 monthly. This covers all sorts of drones, from attack models, to interceptors, to wounded recovery. Their drone industry is constantly innovating. What doesn't work is discarded, and what works improved. Sometimes weekly. For years. Whereas in the west, any new ideas are subjected to "the process", which can take years. And sometimes is obsolete long before they can be produced. Too be sure, the US Military does innovate. Our navy is the only one to have deployed lasers on ships. While cheap to fire, the range is greatly limited, and impacted by weather. But this is only as a result of 50 years of development.
Ukraine's drones are evolving weekly. And while those are offering a considerable improvement of their battlefield conditions, they are also developing highly skilled personnel driving those drones. Enough where they can be contracted out to other countries.
Which happened this year, shortly after the realities of the missile exchange's started in the Middle East. While the Israel and the US were bombing the hell out of Iran, the countries of Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait and the UAE all became targets. Married to US weapons systems, they were now all paying a ruinous exchange rate. And that is assuming targets didn't get hit. They realized that this war was unsustainable, even if they could restock their interceptors, which they can't. And they realize that Iran is actually, playing nice.
Ukraine, seeing an opportunity to earn some money to defend their country from Russia, has offered to send experts at interceptions, and those countries are all rich and willing to pay for that expertise.
After about a month of missile exchanges, a cease fire was announced. Within a day, it was broken. It doesn't matter who broke it first, but part of it involved Iran launching over a hundred missiles and drones at the oil rich countries. And something happened. They didn't get to their targets. A couple ballistic missiles were intercepted by Patriots. But the Shahed swarm that flew as skirmishers for the ballistics did not attract the greatly diminished numbers of Patriots. A new player had entered the market, and it changed everything.
Japan also has looked into the cost ratio death spiral, and came up with the Terra A1 Interceptor drone. Medium range, and 100kmh faster than the Shahed drone, it is designed to run down a Shahed. And it's unit cost is just $2,500. 10 times cheaper than the Shahed. Combined that with the skills of Ukrainian operators, this will actually reverse the dollar ratio out of Iran's favor.
Has Iran noticed this? Probably. After this event, their missile launches have settled into a sustainable numbers of around a hundred a day. Mainly at Israel. Iran is now seriously going to peace talks. Now if only the US was just as serious.
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